钢材走强欲等反弹沽空
发布日期：2024-02-07
轴承网记者获悉，日盘铁矿主力震荡走强，最终报收于458，上涨2.00%，成交47.4万手，仓减1.8万手。究其原因可谓是盘中京冀钢材价格大幅上涨，而河北钢坯价格也出现不同程度的拉涨，除此之外，多数大型商品出现不同程度走强。在仓量方面，钢矿均以空头减仓为主，若想了解涨势能否延续，那还需要持续静观涨价后现货的成交情况，等待反弹后沽空机会。夜盘冲高回落，收于460，上涨0.88%。
从趋势来看，影响钢市运行的主要矛盾是供需矛盾。钢市需求释放的关键因素是资金，但当前无论是市政项目还是房地产项目，都处于资金短缺的尬尴境地。换言之，资金到位带来的有效需求依然有限，甚至少于去年同期。本周之后，螺纹钢两个主力合约均突破前低，这也意味着前期多单全线被套。这也是螺纹钢横盘6个月之后再创新低的核心逻辑所在。
随着多项政策靴子落地，政策利好难及预期，导致传统大宗商品市场承压下行，利空消化尚需时日。
昨日期价大幅拉涨,一方面在于午后多数大宗商品均震荡走强,另一方面主要原因在于现货市场钢坯以及钢材价格的大幅拉涨。对于此番拉涨,市场对此相对谨慎,一方面快速拉涨后能否得到市场成交的有效配合需要进一步验证,另一方面,鉴于前期经验,多次出现钢坯短时快速拉涨无法持续,价格再次回落的现象。受政府工作报告下调增长目标以及节后需求迟迟未现规模性启动影响,上周铁矿石期价接连跌破重要支撑。就期货盘面来看,继周三螺纹近远月合约大幅减仓之后,昨日铁矿主次月合约也出现不同程度的空头减仓,多头入场不积极,目前承压于10日均线。若铁矿主力企稳回升,上方压力集中在470一线。预计今日I1509合约上涨,目标460。
业内人士告诉记者，旺季需求阶段性释放而带来不同程度的短暂反弹是进而存在的，但持续下跌的走势并不会有所改变。对于操盘，建议反弹加空或者背靠2500元/吨做空。
近日，国家统计局公布了全社会工业增加值、投资、房地产开发投资、消费等多项数据，数据表明，这几项主要的经济指标都全线增速持续下滑，尤其是固定资产的投资增速更是创了13年来的新低，社会消费增速创9年来新低，工业增加值增速是金融危机后的新低，后果不可估量。
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