多种因素下压钢材市场难以消化
发布日期：2024-02-07
烟店轴承网获悉，第一季度过后，在钢材市场方面，多种因素交织下压，社会库存虽然有所回升，但同比降幅仍然较大，受制于春节后的因素，市场成交量并不顺畅，需求的疲态拖累现货价格持续走低，库存需要完全的消化还要等待需求启动之时。
浅谈需求量方面，政府的政策面刺激自从去年第四季度就开始密集型出台，预计在今年二季度将会有所表现，除此之外，经济通货紧缩风险日益加剧，货币宽松放扬，钢材市场温度得以回暖。因此，价格继续大幅下挫的动能有气无力，预计价格整体呈现底部震荡，考虑到春节后因素或先抑后扬，参考价在2420-2650运行区间之内。
利润监测：河北地区大中型钢厂钢坯含税价格2049.7元/吨，螺纹钢含税成本2299.7元/吨，唐山市场大螺主流价格2220元/吨，吨钢利润为-79.7元/吨；现货市场价格与螺纹钢主力合约期现价差为244元/吨。钢厂出厂成本与螺纹主力合约期现价差164元/吨，调坯轧材利润为70元/吨。
5日钢材期货日盘窄幅震荡,其中热轧卷板主力合约1505,开盘价2590,收盘价2562,以结算价计算较前一交易日下跌18/0.7%,成交量为26012手,持仓量为6万手,较上一交易日下跌1604手；螺纹钢主力合约1505,开盘价2466,收盘价2447,结算价2443,以结算价计算较前一交易日下跌18/0.73%,成交量为121万手,持仓量为152万手,较上一交易日下降6.5万手。夜盘窄幅震荡。
记者从现货市场了解到，现货市场价格已然为弱势,市场报价浮动较大,市场大多按需求进行点点采购。而在建筑钢材方面,全国市场价格较上一交易日价格跌8元/吨,其中天津市场跌幅最大,较上个交易日跌50元/吨。热卷方面,Q235B4.75mm热卷较上个交易日下跌5元/吨。山东地区钢坯价格跌20元/吨,唐山地区跌10元/吨,其他地区稳。全国钢坯市场稳中趋弱。
对于铁矿石来说，3月份一旦钢厂复产将会有较强的补库需求，矿价存在一定的反弹空间。但当前钢厂在吨钢利润亏损的情况下采购谨慎，短期处于涨跌两难的境地。策略上，基于对以上基本面的分析，我们认为买5卖9的操作可以继续持有。钢厂在2月份集中出现了检修的减产行为，大多数的停产设备计划于春节后及十五后开始重新投入生产，随后进入到消费旺季当中之后，需求预期自然也有所提高，而铁矿石港口的库存量已降至最近一年来的最低迷点。
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