轴承网获悉钢价延续震荡，钢材价格下挫
发布日期：2024-02-07
轴承网今日获悉，
进入7月，炎炎夏日，国内钢市却"寒冬"依旧，难以见底，经过7月上旬的急速下跌，当前国内钢价已处于历史新低水平。随着政策调控，股市大幅反弹提振，国内钢市恐慌心态有所缓解，短期钢价出现小幅反弹行为，但终端需求依旧跟进不足，虽钢厂出台限价措施，产能控制也在实行，但短期内效果十分有限，商家为出货，套现获利，市场低价资源不断涌现，7月钢市前景仍忧。
2015年已过半，然国内钢铁业的成绩单却并不理想，随着年中资金压力的缓解以及亏损加剧等因素影响，钢厂减产检修，控制产能迫在眉睫，少数小型钢企受资金链短缺影响，甚至全面停产，预计7月份国内粗钢日均产量将会出现较明显下降。同时数据也显示，2015年1-5月份我国粗钢表观消费量同比下降5.1%。我国粗钢表观消费量进入峰值区的特征明显，这表明市场需求大幅增长已经成为历史，产能下降，需求也在萎缩，新的供需平衡点尚在摸索阶段。另外，1-5月会员钢铁企业实现利润总额为5.28亿元，平均利润率仅为0.04%，是工业行业中最低水平。当前钢铁企业已基本处于全行业亏损局面，卖不过"白菜价"，如果下半年行业形势依然不见好转，宏观面也无利好提振，淘汰过剩产能，钢铁行业必然首当其冲。
在钢价大幅下行的同时，限价也成为钢厂的一种措施，钢厂单方面限价，对于维稳市场而言难有实质性影响，钢价的持续下跌主要原因是供需失衡所导致，部分贸易商认为限价短期可提振市场信心，毕竟目前钢材的价格已经跌至低谷，然长此以往，只会是上演一次次 "狼来了的"故事，钢厂通过主动限价等政策来维护区域市场价格，然产能持续堆积直接转化为库存的情形下，市场并不"买账"最终均以失败而告终。但对于后期低迷行情，钢厂联合限价或将成为常态，我们需要留意区域钢厂联合限价政策出台。
综合来看，考虑季节性需求减弱，环保因素的制约，加之产业面资金紧张等多重利空的逼近下，钢价反弹空间有限，总体仍将以弱势震荡走势为主。
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