钢材市场整体呈现回暖态势甚好
发布日期：2024-02-07
轴承网记者获悉，在今年的中国期货市场年度投资报告黑色篇中，业内人士曾指出黑色系列商品价格仍将延续熊市的基本格调，期价或将持续以宽幅震荡为主。2015年一季度报告以来，黑色系列期货价格走势还是比较符合预期的，钢材市场整体呈现回暖格局，态势较好。
市场迎来初至春节前后处于传统季节性淡季，钢材需求进一步幅度减弱，原材料至钢材成品价格均大幅走向低迷。螺纹钢指数在3月10日将低点再度刷新至 2402 元/吨，较年初 2648 元/吨的高点跌幅近 10%。随着钢材盈利空间不断压缩，春节之后部分钢厂出现减产，而前期钢材的社会库存压力已经得到较大程度的释放，钢价呈现出反弹走势。原材料端焦煤、焦炭、铁矿石的走势则在 3 月 10 日之后与螺纹钢出现分歧，这是因为原材料端的库存水平依然较高，钢厂的减产令原材料的需求下滑。因此我们在前期的早盘简报和周报中不断提示做多螺纹钢利润的套利机会是符合逻辑的。
就短期市场而言，轴承网记者认为钢价仍有继续上涨的空间：
一方面来说，矿产价格依然上走，提振市场信心。国内宏观经济的不振，导致需求大幅度减少，传导至铁矿石市场，造成长时间的单边下跌，跌幅巨大。虽然各大机构对铁矿石的价格预期评判越来越低，但市场博弈造成国外高成本矿山关停也是必然趋势，由此，中短期矿价强势反弹，成交旺盛。数据表示，截至目前61.5%澳粉报价在54-55美元左右，63.5%印粉报价为55-56美元左右，比前周同期上涨3-4美元，且大商所铁矿石期货不断冲击高位，形成强烈的推动效果，带动相关钢铁期货大幅上扬近百点，提振市场信心。
另一方面，现在临近五一劳动节，而现在节前或将处于一个备货的局面。虽然现在目前钢价整体下游，尤其是工地方面，备受房地产影响波及，开工率普遍不足，但整体趋于上升的态势。而五一假期，节前备货有所增多，或将导致集中采购需求爆发，从而继续拉升市场成交，推高钢价上行。
连续下跌一年多的铁矿石导致国外部分高成本矿山释放削减产能产量的信号，在此消息带动下，矿石价格终于迎来一波强劲反弹，普氏铁矿指数在4月中旬以来连续上扬，并成功站稳50美元关口。这也是自今年大宗商品集体反弹后，黑色金属类价格出现明显上涨。原料价格的大幅上涨，极大提振短期市场信心，成交活跃，商家封盘情况屡屡出现。
总的来说，轴承网提醒您，需要注意的是，目前虽然铁矿石价格大幅暴涨，促进钢价持续上扬，但是，从整体来看，这并不是一个准入许可的好时机，而国内经济恢复仍然需要较长时间去缓和过来，铁矿石供应继续处于供大于求的现状。如若一旦矿价滞涨或者下跌，钢价反弹必将造成断层，一下便会跌落谷底。而受铁矿石短期暴涨的价格炽热，钢铁市场成交空前好转，钢价持续保持上升，预计在短期之内，将会继续保持上浮趋势。
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