中轴网：日本二月机械订单仍然下滑态势不容乐观
发布日期：2024-02-07
中轴网通过走访市场获悉，今年日本二月份的机械订单将连续第二个月持续下滑，暗示着经济在历经了去年的衰退大潮过后，要想复苏的态势仍然并不稳定，机械订单成为资本支出的首推指标，态势不容乐观。
不分析师大多认为，机械订单虽然看着是连续下滑，但其实仍处于整体微行向上趋势，然而如果在未来一两个月中还将继续下滑的话，这恐怕就会引起行业不小的躁动，情况也就自然不容乐观了。“调高消费税虽造成景气下滑，目前经济正在缓慢回升，不过步调还将持续保持缓慢态势。”农林中金总合研究所经济分析师南武志告诉记者。
通过路透调查二十位分析师的结果统计显示，波动较为剧烈的核心订单2月较前月下滑了2.8%个百分点，1月时为降1.7%。2月核心机械订单预计较上年同期增长3.7%，将为连续第三个月录得按年升幅，1月同比涨幅为1.9%。农林中金总合研究所的南武志透露道，“我认为在财报强劲及股价上扬的合力支撑下，促使企业增加支出的动力正在逐渐累积。”
不过从整体看，近几个月的数据是喜忧参半，表明经济体系中存在闲置产能，这阻碍了资本支出--当日本央行寻求推动通胀率升向2%目标时，这亦是个必须考虑的关键因素。
但是就实际情况来看，日本央行最近公布的短观调查数据我们可以看出，尽管日圆下跌使很多大公司获利劲增，但是它们仍计划削减在资本方面的累积支出。尽管通胀陷入停滞状态，止步不前，但日本央行在上周的会议上仍维持其大规模刺激计划的带动。目前市场正在密切的关注4月30日会议，届时日本央行将发布新的长期预估，可能下调其乐观的物价预期。
本报结束同时调查显示，日本3月批发物价可能较去年同期上升0.4%，2月上升0.5%，而3月份日本企业物价指数(CGPI)可能较前月下降0.1%，日前的情况仍然似乎像在苦海中努力寻求一席岛屿获得安生。
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